Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(12:37) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.63 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model