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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to KC 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model