Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to SF 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-J.Cowing to SF 22 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model