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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 6

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) 41-A.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.38 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model