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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 14
San Francisco 49ers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 14
What Actually Happened
(12:24) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to KC 13 for 1 yard (69-M.Pennel).
The Three Options
GO
+3.41 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP
KICK
+1.60 EP
- 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
