Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(9:37) 14-M.Araiza punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.11 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model