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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Hicks. 21-J.Hicks up the middle to KC 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Elliott; 27-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model