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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP