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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 27 for 9 yards (38-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model