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Miami Dolphins

2-4 HC Mike McDaniel
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

4-3 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
30.8%
IND
69.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than IND
  • MIA defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.087 vs Tim Boyle (MIA) -0.217 EPA/dropback (IND starting Anthony Richardson in place of Joe Flacco; MIA starting Tim Boyle in place of Tyler Huntley)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19 12–26
–
IND 25 18–32
Projected margin: IND by 6 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIA

Jevon Holland S Doubtful Hand
Odell Beckham WR Questionable nan
Cam Smith CB Questionable Hamstring
Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Ribs
Blake Ferguson LS Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Austin Jackson T Questionable Back
David Long LB Questionable Knee
Emmanuel Ogbah DE Questionable Biceps

IND

Chris Lammons CB Out Ankle
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle
Dayo Odeyingbo DE Questionable Hamstring
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Back
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee
Alec Pierce WR Questionable Shoulder
E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee
Josh Downs WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 10
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:02 TD MIA (6:02) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 00:25 FG MIA (:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – IND 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG IND (:05) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 3
  • Q3 09:11 TD IND (9:11) (Shotgun) 31-T.Goodson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – IND 9
  • Q4 08:44 FG IND (8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 13
  • Q4 01:55 FG IND (1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 27 for 9 yards (38-K.Joseph).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 10, Center-49-M.Overton, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to IND 22, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to IND 31, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to MIA 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 15 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:38) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 45 for 9 yards (50-S.Olubi; 41-G.Stuard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 14, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 27 for 13 yards (30-A.Ingold, 56-Q.Bell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (5:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →