Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(11:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to IND 22, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model