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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model