Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(6:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to IND 31, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.38 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model