Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(3:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model