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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.35 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model