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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model