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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP