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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.13 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model