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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP