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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +0.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP