Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 63

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 22

(:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to JAX 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model