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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NE
29.6%
JAX
70.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.260 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • Drake Maye (NE): -0.323 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NE 18
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Vederian Lowe T Out Ankle
Javon Baker WR Questionable Illness
Michael Jordan G Questionable Ankle
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Foot
Curtis Jacobs LB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Shoulder
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Groin

JAX

Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Hamstring
Travis Etienne RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 16
–
JAX 32

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD NE (8:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 39-J.Hasty for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 13:35 FG NE (13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 09:25 TD JAX (9:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – JAX 6
  • Q2 03:35 TD JAX (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – JAX 13
  • Q2 01:55 TD JAX (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – JAX 20
  • Q3 09:45 FG JAX (9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NE 10 – JAX 25
  • Q4 08:27 TD NE (8:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 2-K.Osborn for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – JAX 25
  • Q4 01:45 TD JAX (1:45) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – JAX 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 38%

    (5:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to NE 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-M.Jones to NE 15 for 8 yards (51-V.Miller).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%

    (13:35) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:15) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to JAX 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to JAX 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-P.Washington for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to JAX 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (11:16) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to NE 6 for no gain (50-R.McMillan; 94-J.Roy).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 41%

    (4:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.