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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 39-C.Little 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP