Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 56

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

(7:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.72 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model