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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 25 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP