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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model