PHI @ NYG — 4th & Data

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni

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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll

Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

PHI

47.7%

NYG

52.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NYG offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
PHI defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
NYG defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21

–

NYG 22

Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Hamstring

Jordan Mailata T Out Hamstring

Byron Young DT Out Hamstring

Eli Ricks CB Questionable Groin

Darius Slay CB Questionable Knee

NYG

Jamie Gillan P Out Right Hamstring

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Neck

Dane Belton S Questionable Illness

Brian Burns LB Questionable Groin

Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 28

–

NYG 3

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 09:05 TD PHI (9:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYG 0
Q2 04:34 TD PHI (4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYG 0
Q2 00:09 FG NYG (:09) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. PHI 14 – NYG 3
Q3 07:08 TD PHI (7:08) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYG 3
Q4 11:31 TD PHI (11:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – NYG 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 45

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 45%

(13:38) 38-M.Haack punts 29 yards to PHI 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(10:47) 10-B.Mann punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.
Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(8:40) 38-M.Haack punts 47 yards to PHI 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 34 for 7 yards (47-T.Summers, 49-M.Adams).
Q1 PHI 4th & 19 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(7:18) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 34, ball out of bounds at NYG 38.
Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(5:25) 38-M.Haack punts 58 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 28 for 15 yards (47-T.Summers). PENALTY on PHI-58-J.Hunt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 23.
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(11:39) 38-M.Haack punts 34 yards to PHI 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q2 NYG 4th & 18 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(7:06) 38-M.Haack punts 64 yards to PHI 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 42 for 28 yards (82-D.Bellinger; 88-B.Ford-Wheaton). NYG-47-T.Summers was injured during the play.
Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 41

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 56%

(4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(3:12) 38-M.Haack punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q2 PHI 4th & 19 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(1:53) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 24, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 36 for 12 yards (22-K.Ringo). PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 36.
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(13:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 20 for 9 yards (21-S.Brown).
Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 56%

(11:57) 38-M.Haack punts 50 yards to PHI 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(8:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right guard to NYG 1 for 4 yards (27-J.Pinnock).
Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 35%

(2:40) 38-M.Haack punts 41 yards to PHI 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(11:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(10:40) 38-M.Haack punts 37 yards to PHI 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:00) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for no gain (22-K.Ringo).
Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(6:44) 38-M.Haack punts 56 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56%

(4:22) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NYG 37, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(3:30) 38-M.Haack punts 55 yards to PHI 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.
Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(:31) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 19, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 33 for 14 yards (87-J.Stoll).