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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 38-M.Haack punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model