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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 45

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 38-M.Haack punts 29 yards to PHI 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP