Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 24, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 36 for 12 yards (22-K.Ringo). PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.56 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model