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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 49

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 38-M.Haack punts 41 yards to PHI 8, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model