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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 10-B.Mann punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model