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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 71

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 38-M.Haack punts 37 yards to PHI 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model