4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for no gain (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model