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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:31) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 19, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 33 for 14 yards (87-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model