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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-R.Lovato. 87-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 34, ball out of bounds at NYG 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model