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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model