Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Tim Boyle (MIA): -0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ARI offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
ARI
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:17 TD MIA (10:17) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – MIA 6
- Q1 01:21 FG MIA (1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ARI 0 – MIA 10
- Q2 11:37 TD ARI (11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – MIA 10
- Q2 00:18 FG MIA (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ARI 7 – MIA 13
- Q3 11:48 FG ARI (11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – MIA 13
- Q3 08:35 TD MIA (8:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIA 19
- Q3 06:22 SAF ARI (6:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 9, touched at MIA -1, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa, Illegal Bat, declined. ARI 12 – MIA 20
- Q3 02:18 TD ARI (2:18) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – MIA 20
- Q4 12:26 TD MIA (12:26) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – MIA 26
- Q4 08:50 TD ARI (8:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – MIA 27
- Q4 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 28 – MIA 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(9:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to MIA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 19 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 44-O.Pappoe).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%
(1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(9:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-M.Overton, Touchback.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%
(3:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to MIA 5, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 56%
(11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 13 for 6 yards (44-O.Pappoe, 20-D.Dallas).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%
(5:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to ARI 11, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 16 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%
(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.