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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP