Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(4:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 31 for 17 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model