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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

ATL
36.8%
TB
63.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ATL

Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Justin Simmons S Doubtful Hamstring
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Back
Ryan Neuzil C Questionable Knee

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Greg Gaines DT Out Calf
Tykee Smith S Out Concussion
Payne Durham TE Questionable Calf
Rakim Jarrett WR Questionable Knee
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 31
–
TB 26

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:59 TD ATL (12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-K.Merriweather, Defensive Holding, declined. ATL 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 04:25 TD TB (4:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 10:35 TD TB (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-3-J.Bates, Taunting, 8 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 7 – TB 13
  • Q2 07:27 TD ATL (7:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 13 – TB 14
  • Q2 02:14 TD ATL (2:14) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – TB 14
  • Q2 01:09 FG TB (1:09) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. ATL 21 – TB 17
  • Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 24 – TB 17
  • Q3 00:20 TD ATL (:20) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 30 – TB 17
  • Q4 12:11 SAF TB (12:11) 18-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 1, touched at ATL 5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. ATL 31 – TB 19
  • Q4 06:55 TD TB (6:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – TB 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 67%

    (12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-26-K.Merriweather, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 29%

    (9:47) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), and recovers at ATL 49.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (2:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to TB 3, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:36) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to ATL 25, Center-45-Z.Triner. 26-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 14 yards (98-A.Nelson).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 71%

    (1:09) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 25, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-T.Palmer to TB 39 for 14 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to TB 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 31 for 17 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 37-T.Thomas left end to TB 36 for -2 yards (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 73%

    (2:24) 18-K.Cousins up the middle to TB 30 for 3 yards (90-L.Hall).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (1:06) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.