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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Punt formation) 37-T.Thomas left end to TB 36 for -2 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model