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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model