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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), and recovers at ATL 49.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.09 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model