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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith up the middle to BUF 7 for -6 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model