Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Josh Allen (BUF): +0.199 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SEA offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- SEA defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
BUF
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:54 TD BUF (4:54) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – SEA 0
- Q2 08:18 FG SEA (8:18) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. BUF 7 – SEA 3
- Q2 00:25 TD BUF (:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – SEA 3
- Q3 08:34 FG BUF (8:34) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 17 – SEA 3
- Q3 02:01 TD BUF (2:01) 4-J.Cook left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – SEA 3
- Q4 11:23 TD BUF (11:23) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – SEA 3
- Q4 08:05 TD SEA (8:05) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 31 – SEA 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to BUF 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 19 for 11 yards (24-K.Wallace). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Illegal Blindside Block, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 19.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 68 yards to BUF 0, Center-41-C.Stoll. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 12 for 12 yards (33-D.Williams; 32-J.Reed).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 64%
(:26) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to SEA 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%
(8:18) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(4:46) 51-O.Oluwatimi reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith up the middle to BUF 7 for -6 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%
(8:34) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-24-K.Wallace.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 64Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(13:51) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 38 for 2 yards (0-T.Dodson).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 60%
(7:37) 8-S.Martin punts 58 yards to SEA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams to SEA 32 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 99-C.Toohill). PENALTY on SEA-32-J.Reed, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 75%
(2:52) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-13-M.Hollins at SEA 26. Penalty on SEA-18-J.Ross, Offensive Holding, declined.