Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Buffalo Bills 24

(:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to BUF 27, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-24-K.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model