4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to SEA 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP