Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 21

(13:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model