Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.161 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.366 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Bryce Young in place of Andy Dalton)
- DEN offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- DEN on 3 more days rest than CAR
- Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 8
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:15 TD CAR (7:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Franklin-Myers]. CAR 6 – DEN 0
- Q2 12:34 TD DEN (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 45-N.Adkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 6
- Q2 06:56 TD DEN (6:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 13
- Q2 01:16 TD DEN (1:16) 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 20
- Q3 06:55 TD DEN (6:55) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – DEN 27
- Q4 00:23 TD CAR (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – DEN 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%
(2:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CAR 1, impetus ends at CAR 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 8 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 53-C.Cherelus). CAR-84-F.Franks was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-43-K.Smith, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 16.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%
(4:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to CAR 48 for -1 yards (2-P.Surtain).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 61%
(10:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 39%
(8:28) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 42-S.Franklin.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 25Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%
(3:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 82-T.Tremble INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 11. 2-P.Surtain pushed ob at DEN 39 for 28 yards (17-X.Legette).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(14:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DEN 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%
(10:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short middle to 85-L.Krull to CAR 39 for 3 yards (48-T.Incoom).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to DEN 49 for 8 yards (22-B.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 50%
(4:29) 14-C.Sutton pass deep right to 20-M.Burton to CAR 15 for 28 yards (56-T.Wallace; 25-X.Woods).
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